Berlin’s election has become a genuine three-way race: Linke 20, CDU 19, AfD 18

This morning’s new Civey poll is materially different from the ZDF poll in yesterday’s brief. Linke remains narrowly first on 20%, but CDU is on 19% and AfD is now only two points behind on 18%. | Party | Poll | | :--- | ---: | | Die Linke | 20% | | CDU | 19% | | AfD | 18% | | Greens | 16% | | SPD | 13% | | BSW | 4% | | FDP | 3% | There is an important timing caveat: the 3,000-person survey ran from August 27 to September 10, meaning most responses predate both the Steffen Krach investigation and the Saxony-Anhalt election. So it is not evidence that the SPD has recovered from Krach or that the AfD received a post-Saxony-Anhalt bump. The coalition arithmetic is clearer than the winner. Neither CDU-SPD nor any other two-party combination has a plausible majority. With everyone ruling out AfD and CDU ruling out Linke, Tagesspiegel identifies essentially two viable governments: CDU-Green-SPD or Linke-Green-SPD. Berlin’s September 20 election is now less a contest between two blocs than a three-way race whose eventual government will probably still depend on a deeply weakened SPD.

“He really applied pressure”: New details in the Steffen Krach clinic investigation

As head of the Hanover region and chair of municipal hospital group KRH, Krach openly preferred one bidder, G&W, in the sale of an old clinic site in Lehrte. Several supervisory-board members told Tagesspiegel his lobbying was unusually forceful; one said he “really applied pressure,” although another member said they did not feel pressured. The board ultimately overwhelmingly chose the competing bid. The suspicious part came shortly beforehand: G&W unexpectedly submitted a higher offer. Board members became concerned that it somehow knew the competing bid. KRH filed a criminal complaint, and prosecutors are investigating possible anti-competitive coordination and disclosure of confidential commercial information. Separately, another company owned by the same businessman donated €9,900 to Berlin’s SPD two weeks after the tender deadline; the party returned it on Krach’s instruction. There is currently no evidence establishing that Krach himself leaked the bid. He denies direct contact with either bidder and says he discussed the project with politicians but cannot know what they subsequently communicated. The investigation is now about a specific potential information leak benefiting Krach’s preferred bidder, rather than merely an awkward political donation.

Berlin SPD candidate Steffen Krach is now facing three concrete investigative strands

The case threatening the SPD campaign is becoming more specific. Prosecutors in Hanover are investigating Krach over suspected acceptance of benefits in two instances plus a procurement case involving possible anti-competitive coordination and disclosure of confidential business information from his time running the Hanover region. His home and Berlin SPD offices were searched and his phone seized. One element concerns a €9,900 donation from a participant in a procurement process to the Berlin SPD. Krach says he neither solicited nor accepted improper money, notes that the donation was returned, and denies wrongdoing. He remains the candidate and was campaigning today. Politically, the timing is brutal: the SPD is around 10–12% in recent polling, barely a week before Berlin votes on September 20. Even if Krach is ultimately cleared, an unresolved corruption investigation removes much of the SPD’s ability to change the subject during the final campaign week.