Berlin could elect Die Linke as its largest party next Sunday
The newest polls suggest a close race:
| Party | ZDF | ARD |
|---|---|---|
| Die Linke | 23% | 21% |
| CDU | 21% | 20% |
| AfD | 17% | 18% |
| Greens | 16% | 16% |
| SPD | 10% | — |
The supplied briefing does not give an ARD figure for the SPD.
A week earlier, Insa still had CDU narrowly first. The exact ranking is uncertain, but Linke has a plausible path to finishing first on September 20.
The SPD number may actually understate the Steffen Krach scandal’s effect because part of the fieldwork happened before news of the criminal investigation broke. Meanwhile, the current CDU-SPD government has no majority at these numbers. Both plausible three-party governments — Linke-Green-SPD or CDU-Green-SPD — would leave a potentially 10% SPD in a surprisingly powerful kingmaker position.
Berlin is heading toward the strange possibility of a historically weak SPD simultaneously suffering electoral collapse and deciding who governs the city.