Renewed war in Tigray could pull Ethiopia’s neighbours into a less coherent conflict

A drone strike on September 20 hit a truck carrying more than 41 tonnes of food aid in north-western Tigray. Three days later, Tigrayan forces seized three airports; fighting spread toward Afar and Amhara, Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights and officials on both sides accused the other of restarting the war. One Tigrayan official described the situation as “full war.”

The political map has also changed. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front joined six other armed organisations in the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Coalition for Survival, which says it wants to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish a transitional government. The alliance broadens pressure on Addis Ababa, but it contains unresolved territorial conflicts—notably competing Amhara and Tigrayan claims over Wolqayt.

Neighbouring relationships make escalation more dangerous without creating a disciplined anti-Ethiopian bloc. Eritrea, Egypt, Somalia and Sudan have each had reasons to resist Ethiopian power, from border disputes to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and access to the Red Sea. Their interests overlap tactically but diverge sharply. Sudan, for example, offers Tigrayan forces strategic depth while fighting its own civil war; the TPLF has called access through Sudan a matter of survival.

Mada Masr reports that thousands of Tigrayan defectors and fighters have been based near the Sudanese border, with some crossing into Ethiopia in August to attack federal forces. At the same time, Addis Ababa has been restoring military and diplomatic channels with Washington. The risk is not a clean regional coalition war. It is a layered contest in which Ethiopian factions borrow routes, weapons and leverage from neighbours whose commitments can change—making mediation harder and civilian supply lines more vulnerable.