Instinct seeks a $10bn valuation less than a month after raising at $2.25bn

Instinct is in talks to raise $1bn at about a $10bn valuation, with Sequoia and Benchmark discussing leading the round. The terms are not final. The proposed valuation is striking because the company, legally Spear Street Technology, raised $250mn at a $2.25bn pre-money valuation less than a month ago.

The operational case and the warning sign are the same. Instinct’s invitation-only personal agent has passed 100,000 users, according to a person familiar with the deal, but the service has repeatedly told users that it is at full capacity and responses may be slow. People use it for tasks such as answering email, negotiating bills and booking restaurants. Chief executive Noah Shinn has said he does not want to charge users, leaving advertising or another indirect model as a possible source of revenue.

A fourfold valuation jump before the compute problem is solved prices in much more than present usage. Investors would be betting that an agent trusted with personal communications and transactions becomes a valuable distribution layer—and that the company can finance inference long enough to discover a business model. Meta’s free Muse agent makes both assumptions more demanding.