Egypt has quietly stopped government wheat imports as it prepares to dismantle the old bread-subsidy model

Egypt’s government has bought no imported wheat for more than two months. Mada Masr reports that the last two government shipments arrived in the first week of June — 47,000 and 52,000 tonnes — while the Supply Ministry prepares to shift bread from an in-kind subsidy to cash support early next year.

A ministry source expects the change to reduce government wheat requirements by 20–30% a year. That is a huge structural change. Egypt currently needs about 8.5mn tonnes of wheat annually for subsidised bread, and roughly 70mn people are eligible for bread subsidies. Under the planned system, bread would increasingly be bought at market prices using a fixed cash entitlement instead of the state guaranteeing each person five extremely cheap loaves per day.

The government has already begun rewiring the supply chain. Since August, mills must buy wheat from the state upfront and bakeries must buy flour from mills, rather than receiving it on consignment and settling later. The government then reimburses bakeries for bread actually distributed. Mada’s bakery sources warn that this transfers working-capital risk from the state onto thousands of small bakeries.

The fiscal attraction is obvious: less waste, fewer beneficiaries, reduced government wheat procurement and less state involvement in logistics. The social risk is equally obvious. An in-kind loaf guarantees calories; a cash amount loses purchasing power when food inflation rises unless the state repeatedly increases it.

Egypt is not merely adjusting the price of subsidised bread; it is dismantling one of the country’s oldest mechanisms for insulating households from food-market volatility.