Notes on a non-profit indicted for bank fraud

The financial industry understands itself to be an arm of the government. We were inducted into this service other-than-willingly through the ordinary operation of law and regulation. This is uncontroversial and unsurprising to insiders. A claim which will be more surprising: some regulated financial institutions have delegated authority for account- and transaction-level decisioning to a non-profit. Another: that non-profit includes a private intelligence agency, which runs covert assets, publishes intelligence estimates, develops target lists, and communicates them to decisionmakers. Still another: the non-profit organized a coalition of the willing as an outgrowth of its intelligence agency. The willing non-profits, that is. The coalition engaged in a years-long campaign to coerce financial infrastructure and other firms to give them the ability to direct accounts to be closed. The infrastructure built to do this against domestic terrorists was applied to an American politician’s fundraising efforts, and no one seemed to think that was odd. Last week, the DOJ unsealed an indictment against the organizing non-profit for bank fraud. This was based, in part, on how it paid the intelligence agency’s covert assets. They likely developed evidence for that indictment using the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) mandatory reporting regime. We begin, as always, with the bank fraud. The strategic logic of bank fraud charges in white collar indictments White collar prosecutions are structurally difficult because they frequently depend on intent. It is difficult to prove intent beyond a reasonable doubt, as it frequently depends on subjective mental states which we cannot directly observe. This problem is discussed in the literature including in book-length treatments. There exist ways to…

Fraud Investigation is Believing Your Lying Eyes

There was recently an attempt by an independent journalist to expose fraud in a Minnesota social program. It was deeply frustrating; the journalist had notably poor epistemic standards, which secondary media seized upon to dismiss their result. The class-based sniffing almost invariably noted that prestige media had already reported stories which rhymed with the core allegation, while sometimes implying that makes the allegations less likely to be true, through a logical pathway which is mysterious to me. The journalism went quite viral anyway, in part because of sensationalized framing, in part because of signal boosting by an aligned media ecosystem and aligned politicians, and in part because the journalism develops one bit of evidence that has a viscerality that paperwork dives often lack: these purported childcare operations routinely have no children in them. Fraud has become quite politicized in the United States the last few years. We had a poorly-calibrated federal initiative led by a charismatic tech entrepreneur which believed it would unearth trillions of dollars of fraud that focused substantial effort on large programs which are comparatively fraud-resistant. Across the aisle, we have reflexive dismissal that fraud happens in social programs, which functions as air cover for scaled criminal operations which loot many varied social programs [0] and are sometimes run out of geopolitical adversaries of the U.S. including by ambiguously-retired members of their clandestine services. I worked in the financial industry for a few years. We do not have the luxury of pretending that fraud is something invented by our rivals to besmirch our good name. It hits the P&L every quarter and will eat you alive if you’re not at least minimally competent in dealing with it.…

One Regulation E, Two Very Different Regimes

Programming note: Happy New Year! Bits about Money is made possible—and freely accessible to all—by the generous support of professionals who find it useful. If you’re one of them, thank you—and consider purchasing a membership. The U.S. is often maligned as being customer-hostile compared to other comparable nations, particularly those in Europe. One striking counterexample is that the government, by regulation, outsources to the financial industry an effective, virtually comprehensive, and extremely costly consumer protection apparatus covering a huge swath of the economy. It does this by strictly regulating the usage of what were once called “electronic” payment methods, which you now just call “payment” methods, in Regulation E. Reg E is not uniformly loved in the financial industry. In particular, there has been a concerted effort by banks to renegotiate the terms of it with respect to Zelle in particular. This is principally because Zelle has been anomalously expensive, as Reg E embeds a strong, intentionally bank-funded anti-fraud regime, but Zelle does not monetize sufficiently to pay for it. And thus a history lesson, a primer, and an explanation of a live public policy controversy. These newfangled computers might steal our money If you were to ask your friendly neighborhood reference librarian for Electronic Fund Transfers (Regulation E), 44 Fed. Reg. 18469 (Mar. 28, 1979), you might get back a document yellowed with age. Congress, in its infinite wisdom, intended the Electronic Funds Transfer Act to rein in what it saw as the downsides of automation of the finance industry, which was in full swing by this time. Many electronic transactions might not issue paper receipts, and this would complicate he-said bank-said dispute resolution. So those were mandated.…

The gift card accountability sink

Programming note: Merry Christmas! There will likely be another Bits about Money after the holiday but before New Year. Bits about Money is supported by our readers. If your education budget or business can underwrite the coming year of public goods in financial-infrastructure education, commentary, and policy analysis, please consider supporting it. I’m told this is particularly helpful for policymakers and others who cannot easily expense a subscription, and who benefit from all issues remaining publicly available with no paywall. The American Association of Retired People (AARP, an advocacy non-profit for older adults) has paid for ads on podcasts I listen to. The ad made a claim which felt raspberry-worthy (in service of an important public service announcement), which they repeat in writing: Asking to be paid by gift card is always a scam. Of course it isn’t. Gift cards are a payments rail, and an enormous business independently of being a payments rail. Hundreds of firms will indeed ask you to pay them on gift cards! They also exist, and are marketed, explicitly to do the thing that the AARP implicitly asserts no business or government entity will ever do: provide a method for transacting for people who do not have a banked method of transacting. [0] Gift card scams are also enormous. The FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received $16.6 billion in reports in 2024 across several payment methods; this is just for those consumers who bothered reporting it, in spite of the extremely real received wisdom that reporting is unlikely to improve one’s direct situation. The flavor texts of scams vary wildly, but in substance they’ll attempt to convince someone, often someone socially vulnerable, to part with sometimes very large sums of money by buying gift cards and…

Perpetual futures, explained

Programming note: Bits about Money is supported by our readers. I generally forecast about one issue a month, and haven't kept that pace that this year. As a result, I'm working on about 3-4 for December. Much financial innovation is in the ultimate service of the real economy. Then, we have our friends in crypto, who occasionally do intellectually interesting things which do not have a locus in the real economy. One of those things is perpetual futures (hereafter, perps), which I find fascinating and worthy of study, the same way that a virologist just loves geeking out about furin cleavage sites. You may have read a lot about stablecoins recently. I may write about them (again; see past BAM issue) in the future, as there has in recent years been some uptake of them for payments. But it is useful to understand that a plurality of stablecoins collateralize perps. Some observers are occasionally strategic in whether they acknowledge this, but for payments use cases, it does not require a lot of stock to facilitate massive flows. And so of the $300 billion or so in stablecoins presently outstanding, about a quarter sit on exchanges. The majority of that is collateralizing perp positions. Perps are the dominant way crypto trades, in terms of volume. (It bounces around but is typically 6-8 times larger than spot.) This is similar to most traditional markets: where derivatives are available, derivative volume swamps spot volume. The degree to which depends on the market, Schelling points, user culture, and similar. For example, in India, most retail investing in equity is actually through derivatives; this is not true of the U.S. In the U.S., most retail equity exposure is through the spot market, directly holding stocks or indirectly through ETFs or mutual funds. Most…

A window into modern loan origination

The ultimate goal of financial plumbing is to enable commerce in the real economy. Consider the humble window: it is a fairly expensive, surprisingly high-tech manufactured good, installed by the dozen in homes by artisans. A window represents a supply chain, and one part of that supply chain is a sales process, convincing a homeowner of the desirability of updating their windows. The sales representative running that process would urgently prefer to leave their single visit to the home with not just tentative measurements but with a durable commitment to buying the window and financing firmly in place for it. Why finance the purchase? Windows cost $1,000 to $3,000 each and updating all or a large fraction of them quickly becomes a mid-five figures project; relatively few homeowners will pay upfront with cash. Moreover, the sales process would strongly prefer the purchase be financeable, because that will sell more windows than a counterfactual world where windows were only available for cash. One could imagine a world in which window manufacturers or installers provided financing off of their own balance sheets. This would be a rough world for them: they have upfront capital outlay (the window) and would recoup only after extended periods, bearing credit risk all the while. No, they would prefer to sell windows for money. It’s frequently delivered in milestone payments, perhaps half prior to manufacturing the windows and half upon successful installation. You could imagine the buyer could bring their own financing, perhaps by going to their usual bank and asking for a home improvement loan. That product very much exists, but it might be surprisingly less attractive to all parties: it will be costly, low margin for the bank, and have poor operational dynamics for the…

Open Banking and payments competition

Much of the operation of the financial industry is legible to people outside of it. Your credit card works basically like you understand it to (excepting the occasional mythmaking about second order consequences). Debates about what terms banks are allowed to offer on credit cards are fairly straightforward and can be easily followed by non-specialists. But some issues are under the hood, and a societal debate about them doesn’t exactly wear its consequences on its sleeves. Consider the controversy over Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act (and even that framing is an effective medication for insomnia). In July, JPMorgan Chase announced its intention to charge fintechs for access to so-called Open Banking data. This comes amidst a consortium of banks trying to sue this hithertofore obscure regulation out of existence. Almost all discussions of it center on “data”, but it’s actually a fight about payments, and whether banks have a right to monopolize and charge for all economic activity their users engage in, irrespective of whether the bank operates the payment method. Cards on the table: I previously worked at, and am an advisor to, Stripe, a financial infrastructure company which facilitates customers’ use of both bank-sponsored (cards, etc) and competing (account-to-account, stablecoins, etc) payment methods. Stripe does not necessarily endorse what I say in my personal spaces. (I’m also a user and tiny shareholder of Chase. One presumes they also don’t endorse what I say in my personal spaces.) The genesis of Section 1033 The Dodd-Frank Act was passed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. It included a combination of needed reforms and, effectively, partial negotiated settlements for the way in which banks had reaped enormous profits originating mortgages of…

Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash

In the sciences they call it the file drawer problem: studies that fail to achieve significance or reach the "wrong" conclusion end up hidden away, creating a distorted picture of reality. And so here's me rescuing something from the file drawer of banking procedure: a tale of two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 in cash. A style magazine published an account of a large cash withdrawal that didn't match my understanding of banking reality. I burned several thousand dollars and a year investigating. I now doubt that account less, because I understand the context better. Suppose you ask a bank to withdraw $50,000 in cash There exist thousands of banks in the United States, each one independently operated with their own procedures, work forces, and circumstances. They are, broadly, similarly constrained by regulation, industry practice, culture, and perception of the threat environment. There is no such thing as a perfectly typical bank, banker, or banking client. But if we were to ignore the messiness of the real world, for the purpose of making a larger point, here is what is supposed to happen when a customer comes in and asks to withdraw $50,000. A bank doesn’t expect its CEO or Head of Compliance to individually make decisions on every withdrawal. It has designed procedures to achieve the outcomes it (and its regulators, and other stakeholders) desire, and trained staff in how to implement those procedures. Those procedures happen to very explicitly contemplate this transaction. The teller or personal banker, junior though they may be, is supposed to ascertain the identity of the customer, and ask themselves whether this is a typical transaction for this customer. Do they, perhaps, run a cash-heavy business which, every few weeks, takes out $50,000 to e.g.…

A very Chicago gamble

This column doesn’t offer investment advice, as I am not a registered investment advisor. This is not merely a mandatory disclaimer; this is a warning. We will discuss some specific securities below that I am not merely incapable of recommending. Finance performs a strange alchemy, teleporting value through time and space. Ordinarily, Bits about Money focuses more on the plumbing of it than the deals. But a deal enthusiast who goes by The Conservative Income Investor recently flagged a capital raise to me. It has everything: echoes of the culture that is the American PMC 2020-2024, complex financial structuring, a novel web application to move money, a crypto company in the background, and municipal politics. So it seems squarely within this column’s beat. The municipality happens to be Chicago, my hometown and (after a 20 year stint in Japan) current residence. And so I feel some sense of civic duty, as a Chicagoan, taxpayer, and reasonably financially sophisticated person, to say the following publicly: What the hell, Chicago. But before we get to present-day shenanigans, we need to go back several decades, because municipal politics is inextricable from the shenanigans. Chicago has wanted a casino for a long time Chicago and the state of Illinois more broadly have a deeply unserious polity. It has mortgaged its future through consistently overpaying public sector employees (principally, in Chicago, police/fire/teachers) and undertaxing. Neither decreasing total compensation of public sector employees nor reneging on previously-negotiated deferred compensation (pensions and healthcare for retirees) nor raising taxes to appropriate levels is considered politically palatable. One reason is that the Illinois state constitution (Article 13 Section 5) makes public…

Bits about Money yearly recap and plans

Happy New Year! I have a housekeeping message (which you will see immediately below, if you’re reading this via email), a review on 2024, and then some updates about Bits about Money as a publication. Spoiler: BAM is not going anywhere; I’d be obliged if readers supported it with money. Reminder to supporters Are you reading this in a web browser? Supporters of Bits about Money who got this in an inbox saw a brief reminder about billing details. If you are a paying supporter of BAM and need a refresher on billing details, see the account portal, which will likely require a magic link to be sent to your email address. If you have further questions or concerns, email me. Bits about Money in 2024 We’re up to 53 essays at Bits about Money. Nine of those were new in 2024. This is a bit below my target, assuming typical form factor, which is 2,000 to 8,000 words. However, a few of the 2024 essays were longer-form deep dives, so I was approximately happy with BAM’s delivery in 2024. I am also broadly happy with how the publication has evolved. The best piece of last year is almost certainly Debanking (and Debunking?). I am told it is still bouncing around the corridors of power. The piece addresses Marc Andreessen et al’s claims that crypto has been discriminated against as a result of intentional action by the government. We examine the procedural history, law, incentives of commercial actors, and political ramifications of these claims in substantial depth. It is a rare piece about financial regulation of the cryptocurrency industry that is publicly praised by both the crypto VC who came up with the phrase “Choke Point 2.0” (“... the best and fairest treatment of the issue [I] could expect from a skeptic…”) and also by a former federal banking regulator (“This is a…

Debanking (and Debunking?)

Recently, noted VC Marc Andreessen kicked off a discussion about debanking, in a podcast with his co-founder Ben Horowitz (begins at 7:42) and in an appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast. The venture firm they founded, a16z, also published a brief on this topic. The central thrust, quoting a16z’s brief (ellipsis in original): “Debanking can therefore be used as a tool or weapon systemically wielded by specific political actors / agencies against private individuals or industries without due process. Imagine if the government decided who could or couldn’t get electricity merely because of their politics, or some arbitrary reason… without having to explain, notify, or offer recourse. That’s what’s happening with debanking.” If you are new here, you are presently reading a column which routinely covers compliance-oriented topics at the intersection of the financial system and technology companies. This topic is pretty central to my beat, and I have some relevant personal knowledge. “It’s not a conspiracy theory if people really are out to get you.” sums up part of my reaction to this, but only part. There exists some amount of conflation between what private actors are doing, what state actors have de facto or de jure commanded that they do, and which particular state and political actors have their fingers on the keyboard. These create a complex system; the threads are not entirely divorced from each other. A few disclaimers: I previously worked for Stripe, and am currently an advisor there. Stripe is not a bank, but many regulated financial institutions have similar considerations. I’m not speaking for them. Stripe does not necessarily endorse things I say in my own spaces. The recent debanking discourse focuses (and overfocuses; see below) on crypto. I am (somewhat…

Fiction and Finance

Programming note: Bits about Money has been a bit irregular recently. I’ve recently booted up the Complex Systems podcast. It is now up to more than a dozen episodes, including interviewing my dad on real estate development (which is something of a BAM deep (curb) cut). The podcast features Bryne Hobart and other guests you’d probably enjoy on a weekly basis. Since I am more of a writer and very plausibly you are more of a reader, being here and all, note that I include fully edited transcripts (with inline commentary) on all episodes. I also took my hand at bespoke engineering work wildly outside my expertise with a complex capital stack, and the managerial attention required has been significant. Or: we bought a house and it needs work. I hope to get on a more appropriate cadence soon, and beg your forbearance (and also understanding that when Factorio: Space Age drops I am unlikely to get much writing accomplished for a week or two). Fiction is underrated as a means for concretely impacting the real world and learning about it. The Social Network is substantially made up, more a source for vibes rather than a source for facts. Even the vibes fail to cohere with reality. And yet it convinced many proto-founders to put in YC applications. This matches the previous experience of Michael Lewis (who purports that Liar’s Poker was basically factual, but meant as a cautionary tale), who launched many careers in finance. And sometimes fiction doesn’t just give you vibes; it gives you models. The Phoenix Project is actually assigned at some infrastructure companies, because the narrative makes the pedagogy about project management go down more easily. (Often compared with The Goal, which does similar for manufacturing.) In that spirit, I have a few highly opinionated choices…

Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard

Programming note: I recently launched a weekly podcast, Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie. About 50% of the conversations cover Bits about Money's beat. The remainder will be on other interesting intersections of technology, incentives, culture, and organizational design. The first three episodes covered teaching trading, Byrne Hobart on the epistemology of financial firms, and the tech industry vs. tech reporting divide. Subscribe to it anywhere you listen to podcasts. If you enjoy it, writing a review (in your podcast app or to me via email) helps quite a bit. On July 19th, a firm most people have sensibly never heard of knocked out a large portion of the routine operations at many institutions worldwide. This hit the banking sector particularly hard. It has been publicly reported that several of the largest U.S. banks were affected by the outage. I understand one of them to have idled tellers and bankers nationwide for the duration. (You’ll forgive me for not naming them, as it would cost me some points.) The issue affected institutions across the size spectrum, including large regionals and community banks. You might sensibly ask why that happened and, for that matter, how it was possible it would happen. You might be curious about how to quickly reconstitute the financial system from less legible sources of credit when it is down. (Which: probably less important as a takeaway, but it is quite colorful.) Brief necessary technical context Something like 20% of the readership of this column has an engineering degree. To you folks, I apologize in advance for the following handwaviness. (You may be better served by the Preliminary Post Incident Review.) Many operating systems have a distinction between the “kernel” supplied by the operating system manufacturer and…

Working title (insurance)

My family recently bought a duplex in Chicago, after years of living in Japan. This exposed me to Relatable Banking Influencer Content. One facet of it is the largest bill you’ll ever get from the insurance industry for the most inscrutable reason, which I thought would be interesting to cover. Every time you transact in property, you will notice a variety of ticky-tack transactional frictions added to a (hopefully) itemized list. The largest, by a substantial margin, are agent commissions, which have come under substantial scrutiny for their set-by-a-disciplined-cartel character. Next up on the list is a bundle of services around “title.” The rest is a mix of government fee passthroughs and Obvious Nonsense, such as a $125 “water processing fee,” $55 for a wire transfer where that number is just made up, etc. But if I were to go through each of the 16 line items summing up to $1,400, we’d be here all day. So, let’s talk about the title industry. What is “title,” anyway? Ownership is a bundle of property rights, which exclude others from using a thing, and which are hopefully (for the owner) enforceable by the legal system in the case where the larger societal system fails to agree on reality. That is the very orthodox, first-year law school answer, at any rate. Title in real property is the aggregate of rights, commitments, and contracts which make up an ownership claim. And here it gets into gloriously wonky real estate operational trivia about the difference between an easement versus an encroachment, the justiciability of restrictive covenants written by societies far less enlightened than the present, and similar. But in common usage, you can round title to “who owns this address and how do we know?” You might reasonably think that you know about title because you…

Guys what is wrong with ACATS

Many beginnings imply a contemporaneous ending. This is often bittersweet. Some personal news implies a tearful goodbye to soon-to-be-former coworkers. A new adventure of scholasticism and self-discovery means saying goodbye to your high-school friends. And a new brokerage account often implies leaving a years- (or decades-!) long relationship with a firm that stuck with you, feels a bit like a jilted lover, and by the way happens to constructively control most of your net worth. This particular beginning and ending is mediated by a complex techno-legal system called ACATS: the Automated Customer Account Transfer Service. ACATS is quite impressive, underpins a very important part of the financial system, and some of the quirks of how it operates will probably surprise you. The title of this issue is a play on an AI-generated song. Infohazard warning about which I am being absolutely serious: you probably have the experience of a song being an “earworm” that you cannot get out of your head. This song is not simply an earworm. It is auditory superstimulus, like the Dorito, carefully designed to taste like nothing in nature. Unlike the Dorito, which someone is guilty of, this song either has no author or has all the authors. I think if you say the words “my cat” to me when I am on my deathbed I will immediately hum three notes. With that very important caveat out of the way, if you want to be mimetically infected as the price of getting this reference, take a listen at Sono here. A brief digression into self-regulatory organizations Brokerages are regulated by FINRA. FINRA stands for many things, though these days FINRA might deny that it is an acronym. In previous years, though, it was definitely the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. One reason FINRA is not an…