Escaping The “Outside Criticism” Trap

I. Here’s a fun argument you can use to discredit anyone at any time. Start by calling them an arrogant fanatic with a totalizing ideology, someone who thinks they personally have solved all problems and can’t possibly learn from anyone who disagrees. If they have friends who agree with them, they’re a cult who collectively work to shelter themselves from any dissenting viewpoint. Then your victim responds by presenting one hundred notarized affadavits describing times when they have engaged with their critics, spent years studying books by their critics to see what they could learn from them, and even changed their beliefs in response to criticism. Then you spring the trap: “Ah, but you cherry-picked critics who operate within your worldview, a sort of loyal opposition. You continue to dismiss and exclude genuine critics who challenge your smug assumptions.” This always works. If your victim protests that they do like and appreciate many critics with worldviews different to theirs, you object that no, those guys are also within the system. You meant a different guy, even further away from their own view. Oh, they read that one too? You meant an even more different guy. Eventually, no matter how cosmopolitan they are, you will reach someone they actually don’t respect - let’s say a Stalinist pedophile who believes the Papacy is a Jewish plot - and then you go ha! I told you that you rejected everyone outside your little bubble! Everyone has people close to their ideology who they respect, and people far away from it who they don’t respect. Professionally, I work from a tradition of medicalized psychiatry influenced by figures like Kraepelin, Kline, and (sigh) Stahl. When I operate within that tradition - let’s say by prescribing escitalopram to a depressed patient -…

Open Thread 459

This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here. Also: 1: Comment of the week: “Astronomer here. It’s absolutely untrue that there are millions of WOW signals.” 2: There will be marches in favor of an AI treaty this Saturday (11/14) in major cities across the US, Canada, and France, including San Francisco and DC. See here for more information.

Your Book Review: Orality and Literacy

Imagine that you are dropped seven thousand years in the past, right in the middle of a village on a festival day. Everyone stares at you in horror: they think you’re a demon, a vengeful spirit. You are dressed in strange clothes, you are much taller than them, and you are holding a magic mirror that flashes with unexplained colors and sounds. The villagers are almost about to rush at you and kill you when the King’s right hand man, who happens to be visiting the village, comes to the front of the crowd. – State your business, demon. – I’m not a demon, I’m from the future. – If you’re really from the future, what gifts have you brought us? Oh shit. You don’t really have any gifts. You don’t know how to build an airplane, or how to make ammonia, or how to breed dwarf wheat. You think hard. Hmm… you do know one useful thing that, upon looking around, you are pretty sure these villagers don’t know. You tell the King’s right hand man what you know. He is pleased. He takes you with him to visit the King. You both arrive at court, and you sit on the sidelines as the right hand man goes up to the King to show off the new knowledge you gave him. As the King begins to speak, the right hand man demonstrates writing: IAMTHEKINGANDTHISISMYDECREE… Wait, what? 1. Carve When Romans first began to write Latin, they wrote without spaces and punctuation. They simply put all the letters in a row, Why? Because that’s how people speak. They don’t speak with punctuation, they don’t even really pause between words, they mostly speakcontinuouslylikethis. (This is very obvious to anyone who has tried to learn a second language, only to become confused at how native speakers squeeze all their words together instead of saying them one at a time.) When it was invented, writing was very closely…

Links For November 2026

[I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] 1: This month in nominative determinism: the smallest inhabited island in the world is entirely covered by a single small house, which is owned by the Sizeland family. 2: Related: @milktsunami on Soviet acronym names. The male name “Melsor” stood for “Marx, Engels, Lenin, Stalin, October Revolution”. And the second name in this screenshot only raises more questions: 3: Related: @corsaren finds that SAMUEL HARRIS ALTMAN anagrams to MASS UNILATERAL HARM (but also UNREAL ALARMIST SHAM). Also (h/t @techn0sap1en), DARIO AMODEI anagrams to AI DOOMER AID. 4: ACX grantee Sentinel, which forecasts global disasters and has a pretty good track record so far, predicts a 25% chance of a rogue AI exfiltrating its weights over the next twelve months. 5: Related: Sentinel-affiliated forecaster @belikewater reminds Californians that this winter is predicted to be much rainier than normal, and this would be a good time to check roofs, gutters, etc. They mention a “2.5% chance of a major flood”. I asked an AI superforecaster to operationalize this, and it said 8% chance of a flood that causes at least $10K damage to at least 100,000 homes, and 2% chance of one that causes that much damage to at least 1,000,000 homes. This second is mostly a subset of the ARkStorm scenario - the forecaster says there’s a 5% chance of an ARkStorm this year compared to the baseline 1% (with only about half of those ARkStorms reaching the one million houses damaged mark). I…

Open Thread 458

This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here. Also: 1: Thanks to everyone who offered additional considerations on my California ballot. And David Bloomin has collected a list of good Bay Area voting guides on OpenBallot.app, so you can see where I agree and disagree with everyone else, including SF Dems, SF Republicans, YIMBYs, Women, and the “SF League Of Pissed Of Voters”. 2: One of the leading AI superforecaster companies, FutureSearch, is hiring. Many of them are ACX readers, and anyone with a sincere interest in forecasting would fit in well there. See available positions here. 3: Pause AI protest in London on November 21, they have 829 people and are going for at least 1,000. Go here to learn more, sign up, and get information on additional volunteer opportunities. 4: Meetups update: Manila, Philippines, is now on the list. 5: It’s always exciting when one of my posts makes it big enough to become someone’s Halloween costume:

Your Book Review: The History And Adventures Of An Atom

[This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] I find, Gentlemen, when you read with me in private, that nine out of ten of you dislike the 18th century and all its literary works. As for the Women students, they one and all abominate it. — Arthur Quiller-Couch, “Of Selection” (1918) All eighteenth-century novels are weird in one way or another, if only because the novelists of the time didn’t yet know a standard by which to make them not-weird. Robinson Crusoe (1719) famously has no chapter breaks. Tristram Shandy (1767) famously contains a blank page, with instructions for readers to “call for pen and ink” and hack out a portrait of one of the characters on their own. The Man of Feeling (1771) is hardly a novel at all: An anonymous “editor” explains how a fat curate of his acquaintance had used torn pages from a small memorandum book as wadding paper while hunting; the few surviving pages of that memorandum, representing the scattered observations of an eccentric parishioner, make up the slim novel The Man of Feeling. It’s pretty weird. But one eighteenth-century novel is weirder than the rest. It is, in fact, by my estimation, weirder than any book written before Modernists of the twentieth-century started pushing the (riverrun, past Eve and Adam’s, from swerve of shore to bend of bay) weird envelope. That champion is Tobias Smollett’s 1769 The History and Adventures of an Atom, a book of exquisite beauty and mind-numbing tedium, of obscurity and libel, featuring some top-notch humorous set-pieces and also really a…

Links For October 2026

[I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] 1: Did you know: Jeremy Bentham wrote a utilitarian cookbook, intended for use at his Panopticon prison? As you might expect, his recipes describe tasty food created from cheap ingredients. Although Bentham was a founder of modern animal rights, he thought it was acceptable to eat humanely-raised animals; correspondingly, his cookbook includes some meat dishes - none of them sound very appetizing, but I think this is just the 18th-century British baseline rather than covert vegan activism. You can see some recipes here, here, and here. If any effective altruist group houses end up throwing a Jeremy Bentham recipe-tasting party, please invite me. 2: A riddle: why does this chemistry paper mention “1 ml of the mass killing of an ethnic group”? Answer at this link (X), or here’s a repost for people without X accounts. 3: I think this take on Hieronymus Bosch (h/t @mickeyxfriedman) is my favorite AI art so far, although it leans enough on the work of a human artist that it might not fully qualify (but then I would ask that it be considered as an example of how AI tools can enable human artists). If we make it, the future is going to be beautiful: 4: Related: ACX commenter tempname asked AI to translate Romance of the Three Kingdoms into rhyming pentameter. Their example seems to have failed, but I used a more recent model and got a version of the beginning that superficially seems impressive to me (I don’t speak Chinese). I haven’t heard much…

My California Ballot, 2026

See also ACX meetup groups’ ballot guides to Atlanta, Austin, Boston, the North Carolina Research Triangle, and San Francisco. And effective altruist movement leadership tells me that their strongest opinion this year is to vote Scott Wiener for Congress in San Francisco. Wiener is a leader in AI safety and YIMBYism, and the California politics insiders I’ve talked to have been impressed by his intelligence, drive, and performance in Sacramento. Here’s how I’m voting (Oakland, Alameda County, California): I. California State Propositions Proposition 1: Authorizes $11.25 billion in bonds to build affordable housing Supporters claim it will build (or renovate) 40,000 homes; I asked an AI superforecaster1 to predict the true number, and it guessed that 22,000 would actually get built. That implies a cost of $500K per home, which would then be supplemented by state, local, and market funding for a total of $700K+ per affordable home. This is bad, albeit typical for California. Other things that turn me against this: ~5-10% will be spent on subsidizing demand, which will just drive up prices for everyone else. ~25% of the new homes are earmarked for specific groups like students, veterans, farm workers, and Native Americans, although this might not matter, since housing is fungible and those people will leave other houses that will then be available to the general public. There are concerns that the government-sponsored-affordable-housing industry sometimes lobbies against market rate housing because it reduces the demand for government-sponsored affordable homes. The AI superforecaster says that this would only decrease the cost of market-rate housing in California by 0.4%. On the other hand, this is endorsed by CA YIMBY, YIMBY Action, and most other YIMBY groups, because…

Open Thread 457

This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here. Also: 1: More ACX meetup voting guides: Atlanta Austin NC Research Triangle San Francisco And I’ll try to post my Oakland guide tomorrow. 2: New meetups for the coming month: Berkeley, Beijing, and Kansas City. Check the meetup list for details.

Your Book Review: The Ghost In My Brain

[This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] In 1999, Professor Clark Elliott is rear-ended by a stranger at a stoplight. He’s shaken but figures he’s fine, and drives to work. Spoiler: Clark Elliott is not fine. Elliott is severely concussed, and this fact will dictate the next ten years of his life. Elliott’s memoir is based on notes he took while concussed. Reading it is like watching someone try to troubleshoot their broken laptop using the broken laptop. In the opening chapter, Elliott describes walking from his office to his car after a long winter workday: “At this point my world had collapsed inward on itself… I looked down at my feet and shouted at myself to walk, but I knew it was hopeless. I had lost the mysterious initiative that impels us all forward when we walk, and I knew that without brain rest I wouldn’t be getting it back. I considered lying down in the snow.” Over an hour later, Elliott finally manages to cross the parking lot and begins the second phase of his trial: getting into the car. “I’d lost the concept of center. I had no internal representation, or visual understanding of circle, target, middle, inside. Without these concepts I couldn’t get my hand to move toward the lock, or put the key in the slot.” So he just stands next to the door for another hour and a half. Around 2 a.m., a suspicious police officer asks why Elliott is loitering in the parking lot, but the officer is too cold to get out of his car and drives away. At 3:30 a.m., four and a half hours after he left his office,…

San Francisco Meetup This Saturday

Why: We’re having our usual round of fall meetups, and San Francisco is one of them. I’m signal-boosting this one because it’s likely to be our biggest, and because I plan to be there. I’ll do a Q&A if the sound system is up for it. When: Saturday, October 24, 1 PM to late afternoon Where: Mox, 1680 Mission St, San Francisco, CA 94103. Please RSVP here for the door code, we will work to make sure people without the code still get in but it’ll be quicker and more reliable if as many people as possible have it. Who: Anyone who wants. You don’t have to pay money or know anything about the blog. Please feel free to come even if you feel awkward about it, even if you’re not “the typical ACX reader”, even if you’re worried people won’t like you, etc. You’re unlikely to be an outlier, regardless of whether you’re very weird, very normie, or somewhere in between. Anyone who is caught expressing policy opinions will be herded into a side room and made to help create a San Francisco voting guide; if you expect this to be you, consider bringing your laptop or ballot materials.

Why Global Trepanation?

A friend asked me to investigate the following mystery: why do 5-10% of skulls from 10,000 BC to 3,000 BC, all over the world, have holes in them? Why do bone growth patterns indicate that most skull-hole-havers survived years after their holes were drilled, even though brain surgery today requires careful sterilization (and frequently, prophylactic antibiotics) to prevent fatal infections? And why did everyone stop doing this sometime around the beginning of recorded history? Was it cultural diffusion? No. Trepanation (the technical term for drilling a hole in the skull) was common across Europe and South America, with scattered cases in Africa and other continents. The Old and New Worlds had limited contact after about 10,000 BC, and most customs don’t survive for five thousand plus years with no reason. Was it good medicine? Sort of, but not in a way that entirely solves the mystery. Trepanation is an effective treatment for epidural hematoma: a patient ruptures a blood vessel in their skull, filling the cranial cavity with blood, and the pressure rises so high that it squashes various vital blood vessels and brain regions, killing the patient. Drilling a hole in the skull releases the blood, relieves the pressure, and saves the patient’s life. This is great, but these kinds of hematomas are very rare today: about 1/100,000 per year. So how do you get 5-10% of people trepanned? I think there are two reasons. First, prehistory was very violent. People were frequently hunting ferocious animals and murdering their friends in tribal quarrels. Epidural hematoma is 1/100,000 in our modern society where people almost never hit their next-door neighbors with flint axes. In a prehistoric culture where people hit their next-door neighbors with flint axes all the time, you…

Against Against Handover

The latest bugbear is “AI successionism”, the belief that AIs should succeed humans as rulers of Earth. But some critiques fail to distinguish between two different ideas. True successionism says that AIs should take over, killing humans or steamrolling over their interests. This is very bad: a compact description of the thing that AI safety is against. Handoverism says that humans should prioritize their own interests, but that those interests may be well-served by having aligned AIs in positions of control. Some people in AI safety, including me, find this latter position plausible. We are being lumped in with the true successionists as fellow travelers in an anti-human direction (1, 2, 3, although thanks for commenters pointing out that these essays do at least make the distinction). It may seem counterintuitive that human interests can be served by having AIs in positions of control. But I think the counterintuitiveness comes from a nationalist outlook where ‘the State is the highest expression of the life of a people’, and the role of leadership is for someone of your own ethnic group to be the leader so you can feel good about being on top. The liberal outlook is that the state exists to help individuals fulfill their goals. At the risk of desacralizing the state a little more than I mean to, it’s a service provider, dispensing coordination, public order, redistribution, and other good things. It’s fine to automate service providers. If robot garbagemen are safer and cleaner than humans, we’ll eventually automate trash collection; if robot legislators provide coordination, order, etc better than we do, we should automate that too. Every vision of the utopian future agrees we will have robot servants. And the president, they tell us, is merely a public servant.…

Open Thread 456

This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here. Also: 1: Meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland, and Sofia. Check the post for more information. 2: The Boston ACX meetup group has finished their Greater Boston general election voting guide. I may have more of these in the upcoming week. Still trying to figure out if we can do something for the Bay Area, but remember that SF mail-in ballot registration due date is end-of-day today (Monday), and that our main SF endorsement is Scott Wiener for Congress. We may have more later. 3: I’m continuing to work on modeling (and maybe one day automating) some parts of AI grantmaking (you can see previous efforts here). I would once again like people who are well-versed in the AI/grantmaking worlds to take a survey on how much they value various things. This one involves assigning utility weights to ~80 different AI safety accomplishments. Take it here. After you’ve taken that survey, if you still have more time/energy it would be extra helpful for my data collection if you would take this alternate version, which asks you to predict how I would answer the first survey (so I can separate out worldview differences from weight-choosing random noise). 4: Bay Area ACX meetup is scheduled for this coming Saturday, 10/24, 1 PM, at Mox in SF (1680 Mission St). I’ll probably make a post about it, but consider this an early heads-up. 5: Grantee and Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett announces his latest project: MNX is a real-money prediction market on AI. It…

Your Book Review: Storm Of Steel

[This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] All Quiet on the Western Front ranks as the definitive anti-war novel of World War I, perhaps for all wars, and to some the most important war novel of all time. It was widely banned in the inter-war period yet went on to sell more than 20 million copies and has three film adaptations, the most recent the acclaimed 2022 version. It’s so famous, so prominent, so dominating, that the novel I think is the best war novel ever written can only point back at it from a ‘see also’ link on Wikipedia. That novel is Storm of Steel, by Ernst Jünger. You may recognize that name from 2023’s ACX book review, On the Marble Cliffs. It was my first serious look at Jünger as well; he is described as a “serial killer” and a “sociopath,” the kind of modern psycho who nowadays would take glee in uploading videos of drones blowing people up, someone perhaps who sees war as the chance to visit death upon human beings with the state’s permission. I had heard of Storm of Steel, heard the acclaim for it, but never read any of his works. What kind of man was this? The Wikipedia page is light on details, but it’s beyond impressive1. Jünger fought throughout World War I in the thick of it, starting as a private and ending as a company-commanding Lieutenant. He saw action at the Somme and Cambrai, the Battle of Arras then the Third Battle of Ypres and finally the Ludendorff Offensive. He was wounded 14 times, sometimes quite severely, and came out of it with the Pour le Mérite (the most prestigious…

Meetups Everywhere 2026: Times & Places

By Meetups Czar Skyler: There are two laws of the ACX Meetup Czar. First, that there are a lot of ACX meetup groups. Second, that there are not enough ACX meetup groups. Twice a year, Scott advertises upcoming meetups and makes a bigger deal about it than usual. Throughout the year his meetup czar (that’s me, Skyler!) gets emails from people moving to a new city wondering if there’s an ACX group there. So the twice a year Times & Places posts are a helpful chance to check for signs of life and get an update on the local meetup communities. But the most important part is coordination. If you only go to one ACX meetup a year, we suggest you go to the fall ACX Everywhere in your city. That way if there was secretly a dozen of you all making the assumption that you were the only reader in the area, you could all show up at the fall meetup and realize the conspiracy was larger than you thought. And in fact many local ACX groups got their start by just such a rallying flag. A few were even started by a traveling reader who volunteered to run a meetup in a city they didn’t live in, but locals showed up, took the banner, and kept the meetup going. This year we have meetups planned in over a hundred and eighty cities, from Aachen, Germany to Zagreb, Croatia. Thanks to all the organizers who are putting on the individual meetups, and thank you Scott for supporting these meetups! You can find the list below, in the following order: Africa & Middle East Asia-Pacific (Including Australia) Europe (including the UK) North America & Central America South America Online There should shortly be a map of these meetups on the LessWrong community page. Within each region it’s alphabetized first by country then by city - so the first entry in Europe is Zagreb, Croatia. The exception is the…

AI Safety Is Not A Corporate Plot

AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have long mentioned the possibility that their products could be existentially dangerous, but this has recently crescendoed into even more dire warnings, including suggestions that we have to pace the frontier, ie coordinate to slow AI progress. In response, cynical commentators have suggested this is a conspiracy to boost the companies’ stocks. The exact motives imputed vary from person to person. Some say the companies are hyping the product by talking about how dangerous it is; if AI is smart enough to kill all humans, it must be smart enough for your business workflow. Others say they’re trying to distract from near-term harms; every inch of newspaper space devoted to human extinction is one less inch that can be spent on plagiarism and water use. But the most popular story involves regulatory capture: if the product is unsafe, maybe it can only be trusted to a few big politically-connected companies, and everyone else should be banned. Many debates about AI are complicated and hard to resolve, but this one isn’t: all of these stories are clearly false. Some evidence: The AI experts who aren’t affiliated with big companies are just as concerned as the ones who are. The AI company leaders giving these warnings were giving the exact same warnings before they had AI companies - and in many cases, before they worked in the industry, or before the industry existed. If these corporate plots were real, they would be incredibly dumb. Taking these in order: I. The AI Experts Who Aren’t Affiliated With Big Companies Are Just As Concerned As The Ones Who Are Grace et al surveyed 1,580 AI researchers who presented papers at big AI-related conferences, mostly academics with no company affiliation. Over half thought there was at least a 10%…

Open Thread 455

This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here. Also: 1: Meetup updates: Stanford EA is changing from October 13 to October 25. 2: ACX grantee Legal Impact For Chickens announces that they have a 1:1 donation match available for donations above $25 until October 31. 3: AI alignment research group AFFINE is holding another seminar/full-time residency January 4 - 29 in Portugal. Attendance is free, travel costs are covered, and there is a $1000 stipend. More info / apply here. AFFINE works within the “agent foundations” paradigm; I recommend having a good understanding of the pros and cons of doing research within this school before applying.

Your Book Review: We Present Television

[This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] In 1940 the Empire State Building was the tallest man-made structure in the world, and if you stood at the top of it you could see the future. Specifically, you could see this: the first NBC television broadcast transmitter, intermittently blasting 49.75 MHz audio and 46.5 MHz video signals across a hundred-mile swath of megalopolis. A turnstile antenna, a ring of linked dipoles, and a crowning lightning rod formed the sharp point at the literal apex of human achievement. This is the lance that scraped the sky deeper than it had ever been scraped, the tip of the spear for a high radio modernism that would soon conquer the world. This is the needle that pierced the veil of the corporeal and pulled the thread of human culture into a realm of deracinated ghosts forever haunting the invisible airwaves. Maybe this sounds overwrought and spooky. But I’m not just editorializing on my own here: this is how some of the guys who invented television talked about it! I found this out by reading We Present Television, a collection of essays by various stakeholders in the earliest American TV broadcast systems—“televisionaries”, as they are occasionally referred to in the text. I rescued my copy from being pulped after it was weeded from a library. What got me to look at it was the odd handwritten title on the spine, and what got me to keep it was the shockingly early copyright date of 1940. This is not a pat description of a settled feature of American life; these pieces were written…

Ballots Everywhere: Times & Places

In past election years, I’ve shared how I plan to vote in local elections. A few years ago I scaled it up and aimed for voter guides from some of the larger US cities and states. This year, it’s open to anyone who said they were interested. If you’re in one of the cities involved, consider going to the meetup and helping decide who to recommend. You’ll probably want a laptop, or at least a smartphone, plus whatever voting guide your city puts out. If you wanted to do this but forgot, there’s still time. Let me know in the comments and I’ll post about your meetup plan on this week’s open thread. Let me know once you’re done. I aim to post results on open threads sometime before too many people have early-voted. Massachusetts BOSTON (Sorry, we did this one early before it looked like there’d be wider meetups!) GREAT BARRINGTON Contact: Sonja Contact Info: sonja[period]public[a t]proton[period]me Time: Saturday, October 17th, 11:00 AM Location: Rubi’s at 264 Main Street, Great Barrington, MA 01230 Coordinates: https://plus.codes/87J85JWQ+47 Notes: RSVP required Georgia ATLANTA Contact: Benjamin Ikuta Contact Info: benjaminikuta on Telegram and Gmail, (858) 876-7612 Time: Sunday, October 11th, 5:00 PM Location: 2616 Rocky Springs Dr NE, Marietta, GA 30062 Coordinates: https://plus.codes/866Q2G7X+X6G North Carolina RALEIGH/DURHAM/CHAPEL HILL Contact: William Crumpler Contact Info: wdcrumpler[a t]gmail[period]com Time: Saturday, October 17th, 2:00 PM Location: We will meet at the tables beneath the covered area at the American Tobacco Campus, outside of Boricua Soul. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/8773X3VV+2R8 Group Link: https://groups.google.com/g/RTLW Notes: Prior research on candidates/ballot initiatives not required (but always encouraged!) for those who want to join.…

Top Forecasters On The Plague

A technician at a Siberian lab has died of yersinia infection aka plague. The details are fuzzy, but the lab seems to have been working with pneumonic plague, an especially contagious and dangerous form. A few articles quote authorities as saying the risk is small. What about forecasters? Sentinel Global Risks Watch1 are the people best placed to have an opinion on this. They are a team of tournament-winning superforecasters who provide probabilities on upcoming risks as a public service, and their track record is excellent. They say: Our forecasters think there’s a 0.7% (0.1% to 2.0%) chance that there will be more than 1,000 deaths attributed to plague across the globe in the next 12 months. The low probability stems from the lack of known further cases, the initial rapid isolation of contacts, and the ability to contain the spread of typical plague outbreaks with antibiotics. However, we note the possibility that the worker may have died from infection with an antibiotic-resistant strain of plague or from a completely different disease that may or may not have been related to her work at the institute. While some commentators online are drumming up alarm, we mostly think this is unjustified at this time because there is currently no report of onward spread of any disease and strict quarantine measures have reportedly been implemented. Thus, we consider this a serious incident that merits monitoring but not alarm at this time. It is also a good opportunity for readers to consider taking some general pandemic preparedness measures in their own homes, buy some PPE, perhaps some far-UVC lights2, think about what would be good rural places to go to and how, etc., not because of this incident in particular but taking it as a prompt. Some of our forecasters think that the…

An Open Letter To Steven Pinker On AI

Dear Steven: Earlier this month, frustrated by some of your social media posts, I challenged you to a public debate on AI. I hadn’t realized that debate offers are to New Media what chum is to sharks. My inbox was deluged by podcasters, debating societies, and general influencers, all offering to host. When I objected that maybe we should wait for you to accept before figuring out details, they all said great, that’s absolutely right, they would contact you right away. Their people would reach out to your people. Their nephew knew your friend’s babysitter and they were confident they could relay the message. They had already rented an empty lot near your house where they would place a speaker blaring “RESPOND TO SCOTT ALEXANDER’S DEBATE OFFER!” at max volume, day and night. I protested that probably asking you directly on Twitter was enough to get your attention, and maybe now we should give you some time to make up your mind before pressing further, but they said that no, sorry, they’d already hired the team from Inception to place subtle debate-related messages in your dreams. So I feel a little bad for unintentionally harassing you, and doubly so after you responded in your trademark reasonable and charitable style with An Open Letter To Scott Alexander. You write that in-person debates seem confrontational and not truth-seeking. Apologizing for any inadvertent offense you may have given with your social media posts, you nevertheless deny my accusations of personal attacks, saying that your primary contribution to the discourse has been reasonable arguments about why AI might not be so dangerous after all (which you go on to list). You invite me to respond to these arguments in the same spirit of respectful mutual intellectual inquiry with which they are offered. I…

Open Thread 454

This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here. Also: 1: EA college meetups update: Brigham Young University has changed its time/date/place, please check the list for more information. 2: Reader Nikita Sokolsky has completed his work getting some extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English. You can find them at https://fatima-1917.com/ . And thanks again to Ana for handling the parts that required Portuguese profiency. 3: Rob Ennals, who made this year’s book review contest site, has gathered the reviews from earlier years into epubs here. 4: Physicians For AI Safety wishes to advertise that they exist, are interested in talking to any physicians interested in AI safety, and have an open letter that such people can sign. 5: Sorry I’ve written so little recently (and forgot Friday’s book review entry). I’m pretty busy and will try to make up for it after that changes.

Our AI Midwife

This is a guest post by Drew Housman, whose review of Dominion earned finalist status in the 2024 ACX book review contest. If you are unsuccessful for long enough on your pregnancy journey, and none of the many doctors you see can identify a problem, you get branded with a label. You now have “unexplained infertility.” This is good because there’s still hope of fixing the problem but dreaded because once you’ve reached this point the system is less interested in you. The fertility doctors don’t become unkind, but they also don’t give you the sense they are poring over medical journals trying to figure out your problem. They have looked for the keys under the streetlight and come up empty. Once you have unexplained infertility, the doctors start saying things like, “Have you considered using a surrogate?” and, “Sure, the last 5 embryo transfers failed, but what if we try a 6th and cross our fingers really hard?” My wife and I could make healthy embryos, but none of the transfers were sticking. It was so frustrating to be able to create life only to have it trapped forever in a cooler at a hospital in Milwaukee, our babies like so many forgotten Miller Lights. That’s when our LLM doctor stepped in. The Famous Actor in our Pocket Even if you’re paying a gazillion dollars for IVF treatments, you still only get a few precious moments to talk to your doctor every visit. That’s just how the US medical system works. If you want to plumb the depths of what treatments are possible, or ask super detailed and anxiety ridden questions about every single scan from the latest round of imaging, you’re going to want a chatbot by your side. Once GPT-4 came out, we started using it for every question we didn’t have time for at the doctors office. At first it was unhelpful because OpenAI…